News

ParlayMarket: Automated Market Making for Parlay-style Joint Contracts

arXiv:2603.22596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Prediction markets are powerful mechanisms for information aggregation, but existing designs are optimized for single-event contracts. In pra

Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others

arXiv:2603.12140v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Finite-player dynamic games with dispersed private information are difficult because actions both move payoffs and reshape what opponents lea

The coordination gap in frontier AI safety policies

arXiv:2603.10015v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Frontier AI Safety Policies concentrate on prevention: capability evaluations, deployment gates, and usage constraints, while neglecting the

Ensemble RL through Classifier Models: Enhancing Risk-Return Trade-offs in Trading Strategies

arXiv:2502.17518v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive study on the use of ensemble Reinforcement Learning (RL) models in financial trading strategies, leveragi

Stochastic Optimal Control with Measurable Coefficients and Applications

arXiv:2502.02352v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Stochastic optimal control control problems with merely measurable coefficients are not well understood. In this manuscript, we consider full

Bipolar Theorems for Sets of Non-negative Random Variables

arXiv:2212.14259v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper assumes a robust, in general not dominated, probabilistic framework and provides necessary and sufficient conditions for a bipolar

Do Better Volatility Forecasts Lead to Better Portfolios? Evidence from Graph Neural Networks

arXiv:2605.19278v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper tests whether graph neural networks improve realized volatility forecasts and whether those forecasts improve portfolio performance. Usi

ATLAS: Adaptive Trading with LLM AgentS Through Dynamic Prompt Optimization and Multi-Agent Coordination

arXiv:2510.15949v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: ho

From Technical Feasibility to Substitutability: A Geometric Theory of Differentiation

arXiv:2507.01985v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study horizontal differentiation when the set of feasible products is a structured subset of the Lancasterian characteristics space. Modeling th

Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis

arXiv:2503.22693v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly with

Words or Numbers? How Framing Uncertainties Affects Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

arXiv:2502.06241v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Senders of messages prefer to communicate uncertainty verbally (e.g., something is likely to happen) rather than numerically (such as 75%), leaving

Risk-Neutral Generative Networks

arXiv:2405.17770v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a generative approach to price options and extract risk-neutral densities from the market. Specifically, we model the underlying log-ret

World

Pulse 45

12 items

U.S. grand jury indicts Raúl Castro, former Cuban president

The 94-year-old former leader of Cuba faces several charges, including four counts of murder for an attack on a humanitarian group more than 30 years ago.

The U.S. threatens to revoke the Palestinian U.N. ambassador's visa

A leaked State Department memo shows the U.S. threatened to revoke Palestinian visas if they pushed for a senior United Nations post.

Cuba's Raúl Castro indicted over 1996 fatal downing of two aircraft

Miami prosecutors have prepared an indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of two NGO planes that killed four people onboard.

Ebola fears surge on the ground in Congo over rapid spread of a rare type

Healthcare workers in eastern Congo said Wednesday they are underprotected and undertrained in a rapidly spreading Ebola outbreak of a rare type of the virus in one of the world's most vulnerable plac

Netanyahu scolds Israeli security minister for videos taunting flotilla activists

Israel's national security minister triggered a backlash after releasing videos taunting detained flotilla activists who tried to breach the blockade of Gaza, telling them they should be imprisoned.

Aid cuts may have slowed identification of current Ebola outbreak

The Ebola outbreak in eastern Africa was announced last week, then quickly declared an emergency by the WHO. It's likely cuts in U.S. aid to the DRC contributed to a delay in identifying the outbreak.

As floods get worse, Britain tries a new solution: beavers

About 400 years ago, beavers were hunted to extinction across Britain. Now they're being reintroduced as little climate warriors, as communities harness their dam-building skills to mitigate flooding.

GOP races to fund immigration enforcement. And, U.S. indicts former Cuban president

Republicans are racing to pass a $72 billion immigration enforcement package. And, the U.S. has indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 downing of two planes.

After the sirens: Lebanon's first responders swing between duty and grief

Nearly 3,000 people have been killed and nearly 1 million have been displaced the war in southern Lebanon began in March. Nearly 400 have been killed since a ceasefire began in April.

Al Jazeera·3m ago

Gaza sisters win Earth Prize for turning war rubble into bricks

Palestinian sisters Tala and Farah Mousa turned the rubble of their bombed Gaza home into reusable bricks.

Al Jazeera·3m ago

This is the face of Israel

Ben Gvir’s video of bound flotilla activists showed Israel without the mask.

Al Jazeera·3m ago

Israel begins deporting Gaza aid flotilla activists amid global outcry

Israel’s treatment of the hundreds of abductees has been condemned by several countries, including key allies.

Health

Pulse 64

12 items

STAT+: Kennedy fires two leaders on preventive services task force

Kennedy will have broad latitude to remake the panel, which advises the government on types of preventive care that should be covered by health insurance.

STAT+: Biotech execs, academic expert lament impact of FDA turnover on rare disease drug development

How the ouster of key officials at the FDA has created anxiety and uncertainty for the developers of rare disease drugs.

Opinion: I saw Ebola as both doctor and patient. I wish people cared more about the Africans I worked alongside

“As another Ebola outbreak unfolds, we cannot repeat the mistakes of the past,” writes Krutika Kuppalli.

STAT+: Scientists track cellular disruptions that lead to type 1 diabetes

Growing evidence suggests it takes a sustained viral infection in the right genetic environment to lead to type 1 diabetes.

STAT+: Florida hospitals win $8 billion in extra Medicaid funds

Stricter limits on extra Medicaid funds are coming, stemming from President Trump's tax cut bill.

Surgeon general’s office issues warning on screen time for children

A public health advisory calls on parents, schools, and government to limit children's use of screens, saying some patterns of use “can pose real harm to children.”

STAT+: Pioneering trial for treating genetic disease before birth nears reality

A UCSF team has submitted an application to the FDA seeking approval for a small trial of in utero gene therapy for a rare lysosomal storage disorder.

Congressional Democrats try to force a vote to end Medicare AI prior authorization pilot

Congressional Democrats are mounting a fresh effort to end a Medicare experiment to use AI to approve or deny care.

Opinion: Living with bullet fragments in the body can have long-term medical consequences

Living with bullet fragments in your body can lead to chronic pain, issues with mobility, depression, even lead poisoning.

STAT+: Are ‘AI co-scientist’ tools actually useful for scientists?

In this edition of AI Prognosis, Brittany Trang explains in detail why 'AI co-scientist' tools may not be as helpful for scientists, yet.

Opinion: STAT+: Dark times ahead at the FDA

It almost feels like the Trump administration is intentionally breaking the FDA, writes Lab Dish columnist Paul Knoepfler.

STAT+: After warning letter, Whoop and FDA in discussions about controversial blood pressure feature

Whoop is yet to resolve a dispute with the FDA over a blood pressure feature, a top executive said at STAT's Breakthrough Summit.

Politics

Pulse 46

12 items

What swing voters in North Carolina have to say about Trump, the midterms and AI

Swing voters from North Carolina weigh in on the economy, President Trump, midterm voting intentions and AI.

Former senator calls on fellow Republicans to talk with the president more

NPR's Juana Summers talks with Lamar Alexander, former Republican senator from Tennessee and governor of that state, about how he thinks current senators should respond to President Trump.

Supreme Court voting rights ruling could play a big role at the local level

The Supreme Court's recent ruling threatens the power of racial-minority voters in Voting Rights Act cases about not just Congress, but also at least 17 state and local governments, NPR finds.

The DOJ is trying to let Trump and his companies off the hook for past tax problems

President Trump's settlement over the leak of his tax returns frees him and his company from any past IRS problems. Critics say that gives him a sweeping free pass from audits and tax penalties.

Liberal U.S. mayors team up with European counterparts to fight authoritarianism

Ten U.S. mayors from cities such as Chicago and Cincinnati have joined a pact with European mayors to defend democracy and progressive values and fight right-wing populists and authoritarianism.

Spencer Pratt is 'winning the internet,' but can he become mayor of Los Angeles?

Pratt, a former reality TV star, is flooding social media with edgy humor, AI slop and combative rhetoric as a way of grabbing attention and winning the vote of the very online. It's a strategy some p

Even as anxieties grow under Trump, these swing voters aren't ready to back Democrats

Swing voters in North Carolina say they are frustrated with President Trump and the state of the economy but aren't ready to abandon him or his party as the midterms inch closer.

Chuck Todd on what the tensions between Trump and his party means for his agenda

NPR's Leila Fadel asks political analyst and podcast host Chuck Todd what the tension between the president and Republicans in Congress means for Trump's agenda.

Some Republicans expected to oppose $1B request for Secret Service and ballroom

As Republicans work to approve a reconciliation bill to fund ICE, some in the party are pushing back against a proposal to include $1 billion in funding for Secret Service and Trump's ballroom.

Susan Collins brings federal dollars to Maine. She's hoping that's worth it to voters

As Maine's Senate matchup is all but set, incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins urges voters to pick her over Democrat Graham Platner because she can fund state priorities due to her seniority.

BBC Politics·3m ago

Is it harder than ever to be prime minister?

Discontent with the political class is greater than ever - has the UK become ungovernable?

BBC Politics·3m ago

Chris Mason: Inside the shadow contest to be our next prime minister

It is now likely that we will have another new prime minister, possibly within weeks, or perhaps within months, our political editor writes.

Finance

Pulse 52

12 items

The oil shock is coming for America

Tools that worked to lower prices in the last crisis have already been spent

UK eases sanctions on Russian oil refined into jet fuel and diesel

Government aims to alleviate supply problems caused by Iran war and echoes similar measures in US

Protests spread in Africa as fuel crisis deepens

Sharp rises in diesel and petrol prices spark violent clashes in Kenya and Comoros and strikes in Mozambique

Blackstone’s $5bn data centre plan melds creativity and necessity

The idea makes sense, and the opportunity is large

OpenAI readies IPO filing to list as soon as September

AI lab is preparing for $1tn listing with bankers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and lawyers at Cooley

Farage, crypto and the £5mn gift

His rightwing populist Reform UK is uniquely reliant on a crypto billionaire

Oil drops nearly 6% as two China-bound supertankers cross Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude falls to about $105 a barrel as Asia-bound vessels raise hopes of resumption of energy flows

Elon Musk’s SpaceX sets out plans for biggest IPO in history

AI and satellite company fires starting gun on wave of massive Wall Street listings

Iran war opens ‘golden window’ for China’s renminbi

Analysts say use of Chinese currency in global oil trade is on the rise

Protein boom drives ‘gravity-defying’ rally in whey prices

Byproduct of cheese industry has become a valuable commodity

Big Tech software era is over, says top investor James Anderson

Former Baillie Gifford fund manager says spoils of AI war will flow to hardware suppliers